Get some coffee and buckle up.
Right here in this blog.
And for good reason seeing as how terrible some of the calls were in Arrowhead last week.
I’ve never heard Troy Aikman so disgusted.
Add the fact this team is vying to become the first three-peat in NFL history.
It’s too much for Chiefs haters to take having to think the refs are playing into their success.
But that doesn’t mean the haters are wrong.
ESPN came in with some recent history stats to set this mid-week wild fire ablaze.
Then Warren Sharp wrote a piece piggy-backing off these stats.
Unless you think this is just a full-on codified directive from the NFL to have the Chiefs win.
For the record Chiefs fans - that’s not me.
I’m not there.
But I’ll tell you this.
Shit doesn’t look great.
Before I get to my work, let’s lay out a few counter points.
What are people backing the Chiefs saying?
There was also a great stat Ryen Russillo read on his podcast.
How many flags were thrown on the Chiefs?
Chiefs haters -“THAT’S LESS… Alright, let’s dig in.
We’ll start with Ben Baldwin’s question as to why ESPN began the stat at 2021.
Oldest trick in the book.
So, let’s answer Ben’s question.
ESPN cut the years off at 2021 for exactly the reason you thought.
This compared to just four penalties for 39-yards on Tampa Bay (Put a pin in this.
We’ll be back to it).
All in all though - the Chiefs committed 44 penalties during these three years vs their opponents' 42.
So all wrapped up nothing looks off from 2018-2020.
As for the regular season.
The Chiefs also committed 150 home penalties during that span in the regular season vs 167 from their opponents.
It’s less, but not glaringly.
Much like their penalties on the road are more.
Certainly within the realm of randomness.
Then 2021-2024 (so far) happened.
Let’s expand on that ESPN stat.
They isolated the Chiefs, but I want to see that in context.
Let’s look ateveryteam’s total playoff penalties vs opponents in order of lowest penalty percentage during that span.
There the Chiefs are with the least percentage of penalties (35.29%).
But the sample size is still low for the other teams.
Because of course it is.
So here’s what we’re going to do.
Let’s broaden this same lookup.
Perhaps this is all just a product of randomness.
If so, certainly some other teams would have randomly benefited as much too, right?
Well, one other team did.
John Elway’s coming of age Broncos.
So much going on here.
Only John Elway’s Broncos were luckier.
Put a pin in this too.
What else is going on here?
Obviously, I highlighted New England and Kansas City.
There you were enjoying this Chiefs slander research and now you’ve been brought to trial with them.
You’ll notice since I ran this code on every single four-year span, there are overlapping year ranges.
This is what we call… a pattern.
Look at the spans that start in 2017.
All somehow slightly luckier than the prior span as time went on.
This is what we call… a trend.
Maybe Elway was considered that rising #1 overall pick that hit his prime.
I was in diapers so someone else can tell me if that confirms or denies the idea.
Third to… well.. themselves from back in the late-70s.
Which was second to… themselves again.
Turns out when you mix playoffs with regular season, things get cloudy.
At least for the Chiefs.
And that’s what makes the fourth quarter / one-score game stat misleading.
Most of that is from the regular season.
I’m not exactly sure what to make of this significance testing result.
Let’s unpeel the onion a little more.
Yes - there’s some onion left.
Many penalties are so cut and dry that refs would look really stupid not calling them.
Unabated to the quarterback.
You get the gist.
But what if we focus on just the major subjective calls?
Here are the ones I considered.
The most Vikings stat you could find.
Obviously, the sample sizes here are small for pretty much every team except Kansas City.
But only 16 out of 50 subjective penalties is some smoke if I’ve ever seen it.
Less than half of their opponents.
I’m sorry Chiefs fans.
You’re kind of dead to rights here.
The forensic statistics are clear - your team is getting preferential treatment.
How many peels of the onion will you oughta see this?
Doing so tells a screwy story.
Row two shows the penalty referenced in the counter tweet from the start of this blog.
A call from the first minute of overtime on a third down.
That including a roughing the passer on Big Broken Ben when the Chiefs were up 42-14.
Even counting that - 3/14 4th quarter subjective penalties were called on Chiefs vs their opponents.
And I count nine calls on Chiefs opponents in one-score games.
Little bit of a different story than Russillo’s stat now, huh?
And I don’t buy “the Chiefs are more disciplined” theory in the post-season.
Because I could see that angle being thrown out there to explain hot starts and finishing strong.
But they’re not playing teams like the Panthers at this point.
And even when they did, the calls were pretty even anyway as we’ve learned.
Alright - so what is ACTUALLY going on here?
I think this is some sort of GOAT bias.
That’s why home teams typically get a 2.5 to 3 point bump on spreads.
But this GOAT bias might be more powerful.
8-8 in 1988 probably cut John down a peg along with a 5-11 1990 season.
There’s one huge counterpoint to this theory though.
Maybe some old head out there always thought the league was after Joe.
Today’s your day.
Even still - that was 40 years ago.
I don’t think.
But a bad one.
All you Chiefs fans really need to here is admit somethings up.
It’s not your fault.
But honestly… just admit it already.
But it’s still on the league to do something about it.
Anyway - this was a fun one.
It makes the Sunday matchup even that much more exciting.
Almost like it was all…
Nope.
Not saying it!!
!
