Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Probably doesn’t matter that much.
But a coach being really good off a bye week?
A team covering a lot as a road dog?
Probably means they’re being consistently undervalued.
League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years?
So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week.
The Eagles offense may just not be that good anymore.
In their last 8 road games, the Eagles are averaging just 18 PPG.
Add in that AJ Brown is likely out and the Eagles may struggle to get to 24 points.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 21-8 ATS in games with a spread of less than 2 points.
I have learned that betting against Mike Tomlin is just usually not a good strategy.
And they could be primed for a bounce back effort.
This is a classic “hungry dogs run faster” spot.
0-2 teams who made the playoffs the previous season are 27-16-3 (63%) ATS in Week 3.
After the under hitting on Thursday, primetime unders are now 23-9 in September since 2021.
