Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Probably doesn’t matter that much.
But a coach being really good off a bye week?
A team covering a lot as a road dog?
Probably means they’re being consistently undervalued.
League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years?
So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week.
I am personally still not a believer in the Saints this year, and the stats back that up.
For starters, Dak thrives as a home favorite, covering 10 of his last 14 in that spot.
Dennis Allen, one of the worst coaches in football, is seemingly allergic to winning streaks.
He’s 5-16-2 ATS coming off a win.
Luckily for him, all three of those trends apply in this spot.
Definitely think the Bucs can keep this one within a touchdown.
Teams in that spot are 12-3 ATS in Week 2 since 2019.
And historically speaking, Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals, covering 12 of 15 career games against them.
Plus, there’s some more positive bounce back trends here for the Bengals.
Burrow is 14-6-1 ATS coming off a loss in his career (10-3 on the road).
He’s just 3-6 ATS when laying points.
