Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Probably doesn’t matter that much.
But a coach being really good off a bye week?
A team covering a lot as a road dog?
Probably means they’re being consistently undervalued.
League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years?
So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week.
So here’s how this will go.
If they have a winning record, I will count them towards my record.
If they have a losing record, I will not.
They are averaging 30 PPG in Jordan Loves last 9 starts.
And the Texans defense, while good, is vulnerable on the road.
They are giving up 29 PPG over their last away 4 games.
The Packer team total is just 25.
Kirk Cousins might not be a primetime QB, but he is an afternoon QB.
The over is 17-6-1 in Kirk Cousins 1 PM home games since 2019.
But they love it even more when they’re getting points.
I think Minnesota’s undefeated season comes to an end here.
When he’s a big favorite, fade him.
When he’s a small favorite or getting points, take him.
Mahomes 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.
I just like betting on Mike Tomlin, especially in this spot.
Tomlin is 19-6-3 ATS as a home underdog and 21-8 ATS with a spread of less than 2 points.
I won’t be denying the data here.
