Once you reach this part of the NBA calendar, a few things happen
1.
Teams are now taking things seriously/trying every night
2.
Perhaps the most important of all, at least in my opinion, is Phil Jackson’s 40/20 benchmark.
For those unaware it’s pretty simple.
You are not a “true contender” until you win your 40th game before your 20th loss.
If you have hopes of winning a title, this is arguably the most important benchmark to hit.
Should you go 39-20 and then win your 40th?
NBA history says you do not qualify.
While there will always be exceptions to every rule, this one is pretty undeniable.
Something insane like 46 out of the last 50 NBA Champions all hit 40/20.
We saw the 40/20 Celtics beat a red hot Mavs team in the Finals to win the chip.
I’ll remind you, that Mavs team did not hit 40/20.
The year before, we saw the 40/20 Nuggets take down the red hot Heat to win the chip.
I’ll remind you, that Heat team did not hit 40/20.
In terms of the final list, I’d say this is pretty much what we all expected right?
Aside from 40/20, there are also a few additional benchmarks that essentially every single title winner hits.
They finished with a top 3 seed, and they had an SRS of 3.0+.
Basically SRS is your point differential based on your strength of schedule.
The Rockets hit the SRS number, but are not a top 3 seed and did not hit 40/20.
So how do you differentiate between these 3 teams?
Well, that all depends on how much of NBA history you want to buy into.
Not since Steph Curry in 2014-15 has the MVP won the title in that same season.
For whatever reason, the MVP curse is a thing for this era.
Just look at Jokic.
Giannis won back to back MVPs, and guess what year he won the title?
In 2021, when Jokic won his 1st.
So as an OKC fan, this would somewhat concern me.
If you’re a Cavs fan, there’s a certain benchmark that certainly helps you as well.
They sit in 1st at 58.7%.
A team like OKC is all the way down in 11th, sitting at 55.2%.
Breaking things down even further, we also have the Conference Finals Rule.
How do the 3 “true contenders” this season stack up to that rule?
For the defending Champs, it’s the eFG% number.
