Quick little prop bet idea that came across my desk today as I sift through some NFL data.
Makes sense, right?
Hammer the over, right?
So we might have a classic case of recency and selection bias.
Maybe there’s something to say about more modern examples having more signal than older.
But I’ll shy away from that given the low payout.
But check the right-most column on the table out.
Four out of seven games started with the first two drives ending in a punt.
What if we had our presumed narrative all wrong?
Especially on the first drive.
If that’s the case, they might play more conservatively.
Plus the game is in Brazil.
I’m in on this bet.
Join me at your peril!
Not exactly a strong sample size data dive but let’s have a little fun.
At least we can expect a quick death if we don’t prevail.
